Written By Billy Attridge
After a brief hiatus due to Covid-19 impacting games the past two weeks, we’re back with our NFL Week 11 Market Moves piece. In good faith, even after spending time writing the pieces, I couldn’t have the content published knowing my confidence in where the lines would head wasn’t to my usual standard. Bet the Board has always preached and been about quality, not quantity, and I want to adhere to that. With seven weeks remaining, we’re officially in the home-stretch of the NFL season with teams fighting for the coveted 7 (or potentially 8) playoff spots. Two of those matchups with playoff and seeding implications we’ll break down because both have grabbed the attention of bettors. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head to Indianapolis in a game we think the market has tipped its hand on, though the injury report for both must be monitored as kickoff approaches. In prime time Monday night, Tampa Bay has moved off of the key of 3, and I’ll give you my take on if that’s warranted. As a weekly tradition around these parts, I fast forward and head to FanDuel sportsbook for their NFL Week 12 look ahead lines!
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts OVER 50.5 (-110):
This total opened 49 at FanDuel Sports Book before professional money went OVER, pushing this out through the key number of 51 to as high as 52. The position makes plenty of sense when digging into the matchup, and more specifically some of the injuries for both Green Bay and Indianapolis. For the Packers, corner Kevin King looks to make his return after 5 weeks from a quad injury and Payne Insider’s man crush, Jaire Alexander was a full participant Thursday making it likely he clears the concussion protocol. On the other sideline, Indianapolis had a couple surprises pop up when four rotational defensive linemen missed practice Thursday. Per usual, Frank Reich wouldn’t address it and he doesn’t typically talk to the media on Thursday’s. A few defensive backs for the Colts are also dealing with injuries that won’t render them 100% for this game. Past injuries, we’ve previously discussed the lack of quality opponent’s the Colts defense has faced this season. It’s worth mentioning again since Green Bay and the Packers second most efficient offense rolls into town. It’s possible that receiver Allen Lazard could join the party, giving Aaron Rodgers a full slate of weapons at the wide receiver position if Davante Adams can continue battling through injury. It’s also worth noting the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling in recent weeks, what a pleasant surprise that would be if Rodgers had a legitimate #3 receiver. Now, the Colts front 4 has done a decent job creating pressure this season, but they’ll be put to the test against a Packers offensive line that is Top 3 in pass block win rate, run block win rate, and adjusted sack rate, which means the Colts secondary will have to hold up in coverage for significantly more time than they’re used to. For the Colts offensively, we’ve seen Philip Rivers get back rookie receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and a now healthy T.Y. Hilton which pair nicely with a trio of other pass-catching options in Mo Alie-Cox, Trey Burton and Nyheim Hines. This Colts offense could potentially improve on their 7th ranked success rate through the air, a number which shoots all the way to #1 when removing games against Top 6 rated defenses in efficiency. The Packers only rank 20th in defensive pass success rate, so their should be opportunities for Rivers to exploit Green Bay’s defense, especially considering the extra time Frank Reich has to devise a game plan. Although Aaron Rodgers commended Davante Adams for being “old school” when it comes to injuries and playing through them earlier this week at his presser, Adams did miss practice Thursday. If he’s out, this total will dip slightly. But if Adams is upgraded, this total will blow back through the key of 51 especially with all the matchup advantages.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tamapa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-113)
After impressive victories for both clubs Week 10, the Rams once again trek across country to take on the Buccaneers for Monday Night Football. This will be the 5th time Los Angeles heads east in just eleven weeks; by far the most in the NFL to this point. While the victory over Seattle off the bye was massive for NFC West implications, it did not come without significant injuries. The Rams lost their stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth, safety Taylor Rapp, and kicker Kai Forbath. Whitworth had graded out as the 4th best tackle this season, so his loss will be felt. Unfortunately for the Rams, this is the last matchup you want to be short handed at offensive line against. The Buccaneers rank 1st in adjusted line yards, 3rd in adjusted sack rate, 3rd in pass rush win rate, and with defensive coordinator Todd Bowles propensity to blitz and apply pressure, this matchup starts to look bleak up front for the Rams offense. Jared Goff’s struggles against pressure are well-documented, and he will see plenty of it Monday. Defensively for the Rams, we have to give props to coordinator Brandon Staley, whose defense continues to improve each week and the second half adjustments where Los Angeles has allowed an average of 4 points have gone unnoticed. This does come with a caveat, however. The Rams have faced the 4th easiest schedule of opposing offenses, and Tampa, currently 8th in offensive efficiency, will be a step up in class for Staley and company. We also expect Tampa Bay to have the services of guard Ali Marpet, who has missed the last two games after a concussion he suffered against the Giants. Running back Ronald Jones could expand on his career day against Carolina, as he faces a Rams front 7 that has faced the 4th easiest slate of opposing rush offenses thus far. The matchup on both sides of the ball isn’t conducive for the Rams, who are now dealing with Covid-19 protocols after a player tested positive Wednesday, meaning all meetings are virtual this week. With the matchup, injuries, and Covid situation, it’s no surprise this number has ticked up from the opener of -3 (-120) to -3.5 (-113). We’re now seeing some books even deal -4.
NFL Week 12 Look Ahead Lines via FanDuel
Detroit vs. Houston (N/A – Stafford) (Thanksgiving Day)
Dallas -1 vs. Washington (Thanksgiving Day)
Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Baltimore (Thanksgiving Day)
Atlanta PICK’em vs. Las Vegas
Arizona -2.5 @ New England
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. New York Giants
Cleveland -6 @ Jacksonville
Minnesota -4 vs. Carolina
Indianapolis -4 vs. Tennessee
Buffalo -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Miami -7 @ New York Jets
New Orleans -6 @meg Denver
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs. San Francisco
Kansas City -2.5 @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay -7.5 vs. Chicago (SNF)
Seattle -5 @ Philadelphia