Written By Billy Attridge
Opening week provided surprises, mainly the groggy starts for Philadelphia and Seattle in addition to the drubbing Pittsburgh took on Sunday night. For NFL Week 2, we head to Metlife Stadium to see if the G-Men can put “1” in the win column, there’s also an interesting angle in the Patriots game, and we finish at Mile High for a clash between Vic Fangio and his old employer. Before investing this weekend, find out why some of the aforementioned games have moved. As always, we head head out to Vegas and reveal look ahead lines for Week 3.
Buffalo @ New York Giants +1.5 (-103):
Buffalo heads back to Met Life for the second straight week looking to start the season 2-0 against their New York brethren. The Bills came back from a 16-0 deficit in the 3rd quarter to beat the Jets, overcoming a -3 turnover differential along the way. The Giants were shredded by Dallas through the air, and couldn’t convert enough in the Red Zone to make the game competitive. Despite the lopsided score, New York did a decent job moving the ball on offense, with Eli throwing for over 300 yards, while only being sacked once against a good Cowboys front. The Giants were 2nd in rushing success rate on offense, and 8th in the same metric defensively, which is where the advantage lies over Buffalo. The Bills were all about dinking and dunking last week, and that’s where we’ve seen Josh Allen struggle with his accuracy. If the G-Men can make Buffalo one dimensional on offense, we could see this Buffalo’s offense stall. I would expect Rosas to be an upgrade from (now former) Jets kicker Vedvik, as well. This number ticked out to +2.5 (-105), before professional money grabbed the Giants on the buy +3.
New England @ Miami Under 49 (-110):
Tough to believe we’re discussing this game when there’s 15 others we could mention, but value is value. The total opened 47 and got pushed out to 49 before we saw resistance. I’m not one to overreact to Week 1, so this isn’t that, but more of a verification of what we thought would occur. New England’s defense performed very well (7th in pass success rate) against a Pittsburgh offense that will undoubtedly be a Top 15 offense by years end. On offense, the Patriots did what they always do, and that’s exploit your weakness (Steelers secondary). Come Sunday, New England should have advantages across the board, and I believe we could see a very run-heavy Patriots team, especially towards the 2nd half/4Q of this game if it is “out of hand”. Why put anything exotic on film here? On the other side, Miami didn’t have success anywhere against Baltimore’s defense, and I’m not sure they will have any this week, either. Brady and Belichick have struggled in Miami historically, and while I don’t think they will here, we could see the Double-B’s pump the brakes on offense for the sake of their old DC, Brian Flores, who was largely responsible for last seasons Super Bowl win. This number should drop closer to kickoff.
Chicago @ Denver Under 41 (-115):
This game should be fascinating, as Chicago travels West to the Mountains for a reunion with their former defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. The Bears bottled up Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense Week 1, and now they have the opportunity to get after the statue that is Joe Flacco, who’s operating without the best member of his offensive line in right tackle Ja’Wuan James. If the Raiders defensive line put pressure on Flacco, we can only imagine what this Bears front 7 will do. On the other side of the ball, who knows Matt Nagy’s offense better than Fangio? Denver disappointed on the defensive side of the ball last week, but have historically performed very well early in the season at home, and again, I would expect to see plenty of Bradley Chubb and Von Miller in the backfield. Mitch Trubisky still looks unsure at times in the pocket, and if anyone knows his tendencies and how to exploit the negative ones, it will be Vic and this defense. This number should continue to tick down off the key number of 41, so you’ll want to grab that before it plummets.
Vegas Look-Ahead Lines for NFL Week 3:
Jacksonville +1.5 vs. Tennessee
Buffalo -4 vs. Cincinnati
Tampa Bay -3 vs. New York Giants
Indianapolis -4 vs. Atlanta
Kansas City -7.5 vs. Baltimore
Green Bay -6.5 vs. Denver
Philadelphia -8 vs. Detroit
Dallas -9 vs. Miami
New England -10 vs. New York Jets
Minnesota -7 vs. Oakland
Arizona +3 vs. Carolina
LA Chargers -5.5 vs. Houston
Seattle +1 vs. New Orleans
San Francisco -1 vs. Pittsburgh
Cleveland +3 vs. LA Rams
Washington +2.5 vs. Chicago