Written By Billy Attridge
NFL week 9 presents intriguing and exciting games, especially with the afternoon slate (Chargers at Seahawks, Rams at Saints, and Packers at Patriots). Digging into the market moves let’s start in the NFC South with a journeyman quarterback getting a second chance, then head to Baltimore where two Top 10 defenses meet – and finally, we’ll peak ahead to Monday Night football. Before investing this weekend, read below to see why these numbers are on the move and will continue to do so. As always, we reveal the Vegas look ahead lines for Week 10!
Tampa Bay +7 (-120) @ Carolina:
What an odd season it’s been for the Buccaneers, and now they’re flip-flopping quarterbacks again placing Fitzpatrick back in the saddle. Last week, Carolina was a 4.5-point favorite on the look-ahead, and while that’s not gospel it does act as a nice guide. There has been a 2.5-point adjustment after their impressive victory over the Ravens. As we’ve mentioned multiple times throughout the season when breaking down the Panthers, the strategy you MUST employ against them is passing the ball down the field, as the secondary is 23rd in passing success rate and 27th in explosive pass defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well this year, averaging 10.8 yards per attempt (highest in the league), while completing 68.1% of passes with a 13:5 TD to INT ratio. The players seem to love and rally around him, and in a game where both offenses should have success, it’s no wonder this line seems to be headed south.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore Under 47.5 (-110):
This total opened 47.5 at BetOnline.ag, and since we’ve seen a slight tick down with juice shaded under. I’ve hinted here and there about Pittsburgh’s defense showing improvement, and we’re finally starting to see the market catch up to that premise. Pittsburgh is now 6th and 7th in defensive rush and pass success rate respectively, and they’ve done that despite playing one of the tougher schedules of opposing offenses. They are healthy in the secondary, and cornerback Joe Haden is reverting back to his Pro Bowl form. They are 5th in sack rate % and defensive adjusted line yards. On the opposing sideline, we obviously have an elite unit with the Ravens defense (1st in both defensive rush and pass success rate), whose performance (and scoreboard) last week was not entirely indicative of who they are, as they were put in undesirable situations from turnovers, as well as some really unlucky bounces of the ball (still, hat tip to the Panthers). This total could drop a bit more as we approach kickoff.
Tennessee +7 (-120) @ Dallas:
This line opened Dallas -4 at BetOnline.ag and on the look-ahead lines, Dallas was a 4-point favorite, as well. Reminder: Both teams were on a bye this past week! This number climbed as high as +7 (-115) on Monday before there was resistance. Dallas has been much better at home this year, posting a 3-0 record, while they have yet to win on the road. This is a great game to discuss strength of schedule, as this is especially pertinent when the Titans have the ball. Tennessee has faced the toughest slate of opposing defenses (5 opponents have graded out in the Top 15 in defensive efficiency), while the Cowboys defense has faced the 7th easiest schedule of opposing offenses. While Tennessee is no juggernaut on that side of the ball, Marcus Mariota looks to be almost 100% healthy going into this game, and we could see them push the ball down the field a bit more. As this line continues to mature, look for it to trend back towards the opening number as opposed to the key number of 7.
NFL Week 10 Vegas Look Ahead Lines:
Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Carolina
New York Jets -7 vs. Buffalo
Atlanta -1.5 @ Cleveland
New Orleans -4.5 @ Cincinnati
Tampa Bay PICK’em vs. Washington
New England -6.5 @ Tennessee
Green Bay vs. Miami (N/A – Tannehill)
Indianapolis -1.5 vs. Jacksonville
Chicago -3.5 vs. Detroit
Kansas City -14.5 vs. Arizona
LA Chargers -8 vs. Oakland
LA Rams -8.5 vs. Seattle
Philadelphia -6 vs. Dallas
San Francisco -2 vs. New York Giants
BYE: Houston, Denver, Minnesota, Baltimore