Written By Billy Attridge
This season is flying and the Week 6 slate is incredible with 9 games oddsmakers installed 3-points or less! We’ll cover a total in the AFC North that may have some shaking their head, a game where a huge advantage for one team could spoil an undefeated season, and could sports books NEED the Patriots at home in a primetime spot? We also glance ahead to Vegas look ahead lines for Week 7.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati Under 53 (-110):
This total opened 54.5/54 across the market before we saw significant sharp money come in on the under, forcing books to move this to the current number. In an early season pivotal AFC North clash, should we be surprised the total has dropped despite both teams being Top 10 in overall offensive efficiency? When we break this game down, we see the Steelers have played the 3rd toughest slate of opposing offenses, yet rank 16th in overall defensive efficiency, including 5th in defensive pass success rate. They held Atlanta in check last week, holding them to just 4.6 yards per play. On the opposing sidelines, Cincinnati has faced a Top 10 slate of opposing pass offenses, and while it hasn’t been the smoothest sailing for them, getting Vontaze Burfict back to a full snap count should help show improvement across the defense as a whole. Both team have struggled to stop the run, so I would expect an emphasis on getting Mixon and Conner going early. Despite the 1.5-point move towards the under, I would not be shocked if this total continues to drop.
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Los Angeles Rams @ Denver +7 (-115):
The Rams march in to Mile High Sunday afternoon undefeated, off of their emotional division win at Seattle. Los Angeles lost both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks to concussions, so their status remains up in the air for Sunday. While the Rams have looked like the best team in football thus far, there is one area that they continue to struggle in; stopping the run. LA ranks 22nd in defensive rush success rate, and 28th in overall rush defense efficiency. While Denver’s offensive output has been inconsistent to say the least, they have continually dominated opponents on the ground, ranking 1st overall in both offensive rush efficiency AND explosive rushing. Denver formulated a near perfect game-plan two weeks ago against Kansas City, keeping the Chiefs offense on the sidelines while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. With the total dropping, it supports the theory of a run-heavy game from the Broncos, as well as the potential for both Kupp and/or Cooks to be on the sideline. A non-conference game, sandwiched between two division games, with a team from Los Angeles playing in frigid weather feels like a nice recipe; expect this number to fall below the key number of 7 before kickoff.
Kansas City @ New England -3 (-120):
BetOnline.ag opened New England 3-point favorites, but we quickly saw the Patriots move off the most valuable number in football out to 3.5. New England at home in a prime-time spot would signal the public/recreational bettors slamming the Patriots, right? Not so fast, as of this moment there is almost 2x the number of Chiefs tickets. Can you blame them? The Chiefs are 5-0 against the spreads closing number, and Patty Mahomes is your MVP favorite at 3/1 right now, yet this line has moved in the direction of New England. When we break this down, we still see the same issues plaguing the Chiefs. Their defense ranks 28th in overall efficiency, dead-last in defensive rush success rate, and 26th in explosive pass defense. The Patriots have a little revenge from last year’s home opener, a game in which Kansas City dropped 42 points. With Trey Flowers, Patrick Chung, Edelman all healthy and Gordon getting acclimated with the offense with extra prep time, this is a great spot for the Patriots.
For Breakdowns of the biggest Week 6 NFL games listen to Bet the Board podcast
NFL Week 7 Vegas Look Ahead Lines:
Denver -2.5 at Arizona
*LA Chargers -3 vs. Tennessee (*London)
New England -3 at Chicago
Tampa Bay -1.5 vs. Cleveland
Detroit -2 at Miami
Philadelphia -3 at Carolina
Indianapolis -5.5 vs. Buffalo
Kansas City -6.5 vs. Cincinnati
Minnesota -4 at New York Jets
Jacksonville vs. Houston (N/A – Watson)
Baltimore PICK’em vs. New Orleans
Washington -3 vs. Dallas
LA Rams -12.5 at San Francisco
Atlanta -3.5 vs. New York Giants
BYE: Pittsburgh, Oakland, Green Bay, Seattle
