Written By Billy Attridge
As the end of the regular season nears you’ll hear the terms ‘motivation’ and ‘must-win’ frequently thrown about. While relevant, it’s critical to pull back the curtain, dig even deeper, do your reading, and continue to uncover matchup advantages and angles to exploit. We’ll take a look at three games with the ‘must-win’ mentality that may provide an extra point or two of value, as well as the Week 16 Vegas look ahead lines.
Baltimore @ Cleveland +7 (-110):
Well, here we go again. BetOnline.Ag opened Cleveland +8 and since then we’ve seen slight movement with most of the market +7 flat. Baltimore is coming off an emotional and heartbreaking loss to the Steelers Sunday night, while the Browns gave up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter eventually losing and blowing the cover in overtime to Green Bay. The Ravens cannot afford to drop this game if they plan to make the playoffs, so there is pressure to perform here. Baltimore closed -7.5 in Week 2; picked off Cleveland quarterbacks 4 times on the way to a 24-10 victory despite the Browns outgaining them by +0.8 yards per play. What’s interesting in this game is who will be on the field compared to the first meeting. Baltimore lost arguably their best defensive player in CB Jimmy Smith for the season, and his value showed this past week in Pittsburgh as Big Ben threw for over 500 yards. Meanwhile, Cleveland now has their best offensive player back in WR Josh Gordon, who looks as though he hasn’t missed a beat during his time off. Don’t be surprised to see this number continue to drop.
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Dallas @ Oakland +3 (-110):
When evaluating Sunday Night Football we see one of the biggest line moves from look-ahead numbers last week. Prior to Week 14’s results, Oakland was a 2-point favorite at the Westgate sportsbook hosting Dallas. Looking at the current number, we have seen a 5-point adjustment from last week. Dallas comes off a road win in New York, a game that was 10-10 in the 4th quarter before things snowballed on the Giants, leading to a 30-10 final result. The Raiders are coming off a poor performance in Kansas City, where they historically haven’t performed well with Derek Carr under center (his struggles are well documented). Dallas is garnering 70% of the ticket count thus far, is coming off two victories where the final scores aren’t indicative of how the game went, leading me to expect the majority of unsophisticated money on the Cowboys at the current price. No doubt professional money hit Dallas early in the week getting ahead of the market, but as soon as +3.5 flashed it was gone instantly. In a pivotal game for both team’s futures, I expect to see sharp bettors resist this Cowboys move waiting for +3.5 to pop again — and books might be forced to go there if early games Sunday don’t go their way.
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Atlanta @ Tampa Bay +6 (-103):
We head south for Monday Night Football with the Tampa Bay Buccaneer’s hosting Atlanta; the road team opened a consensus 5-point favorite. As we consistently do, it’s never a bad idea to see what this number was the week before to gauge reaction to 60 minutes of football. The Falcons escaped at home in a huge division victory over the Saints, while the Buccaneers lost on a field goal with 20 seconds remaining to the Lions. Prior to those results, Tampa Bay was only getting 3.5 points, meaning we have seen a 2.5-point adjustment to the current number, which has become more of a key number since the extra point was moved back. Atlanta should have all the pressure on them, as every game is crucial to clinching a Wild Card spot. The Falcons are attracting 84% of the tickets to this point, and with the stand-alone spot I don’t expect that to change much. There seems to be some value on Tampa Bay at this number — and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this close lower at the sharper shops.
Week 16 Vegas Look Ahead Lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook:
Home Spread Away
Ravens 10 Colts
Packers N/A Vikings
Bengals PK Lions
Jets +10.5 Chargers
Titans +3 (+100) Rams
Bears -7 Browns
Panthers -9 Buccaneers
Saints -4.5 Falcons
Redskins -5 Broncos
Chiefs -7.5 Dolphins
Patriots N/A Bills
49ers +5.5 Jaguars
Cardinals -7 Giants
Cowboys -3 (+100) Seahawks
Texans +8 Steelers
Eagles -7.5 Raiders