BAD BEAT! NFL and College Football Beats of the Week

Written By @AllStaples

“I’ve been on such a losing streak that if I had been around I would have taken General Custer and given points.” -Joe E Lewis

The best thing about college football winding down is that it greatly reduces the odds of taking a Bad Beat. Yep, I’m always looking on the bright side.

1. The Beat: Packers at +3.5 through +2.5 Browns

The Bad: Packers 27, Browns 21

The Takeaway: Oh, Cleveland. The Browns came in winless and were 3-10 ATS this season. Coach Hue Jackson’s record with the Browns is 1-27. The last time the Browns were victorious on a Sunday was December 13th, 2015. Yes, that was 728 days ago (they beat the 49ers on a Saturday last season). There are a million ways to say it; things are bad in Cleveland right now. But hey, Josh Gordon is back! That’ll probably go well, right?

Anyway, the Packers opened as 4-point favorites and were bet down to -2.5 prior to kickoff. As Dave Mason noted, Sharp guys were once again backing the Browns and the Browns were Betonline.Ag’s biggest need with 63% of money coming in on the Pack. And you know what? For a while, it looked good for the Sharps and the Books. Through three quarters, the Browns looked like the team many thought we’d see this year. And then midnight struck and the Browns became the Browns once again. The Packers scored a pair of touchdowns in the 4^th quarter including the game tying touchdown with less than 20 seconds left to play. In overtime, it appeared as though the Packers were going to kick the winning field goal which would have pushed the 3, covered the 2.5 and failed to cover the 3.5/4. All things considered, a fair outcome in a competitive game. And then a Bad Beat was deliver:

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2. The Beat: Kennesaw State -1.5 through +6 versus Sam Houston State.

The Bad: Sam Houston State 34, Kennesaw State 27

The Takeaway: This was a sneaky interesting game from a gambling perspective. Both the spread and the total had 7 point swings which, incredibly, didn’t end up changing the betting result. The Kennesaw State Owls opened 1.5 point favorites and went as high as -2 before professional bettors hammered Sam Houston State. Only a day later, the Bearkats were the favorite and the number had raced through the key number of 3 all the way to 4. The number continued spiraling upwards finally stopping at Same Houston -6. Spoiler alert: the Bearkats won by 7 which meant no matter what number you had, you won.

Just as the spread fluctuated by a full touchdown, the total followed right along. The total opened 61.5 and was bet out to 68.5. There was much excitement for the over play here and why not? Sam Houston averaged 48 points per game this season while the Owls averaged only 30. The over bettors likely imagined many plays like this:

But, again, spoiler alert: that didn’t happen. No matter when you bet the over, you lost that bet. There was no middling to be had here – very strange.

But what makes this a real Bad Beat was the fact that Kennesaw had a chance to tie the game on a 4^th down play from the Bearkat 11. The play call? A pitch into a reverse. Game over.

Fun fact: the Bearkat is a fictitious animal.

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The Beat: SECOND HALF: Rams -2.5 vs. Eagles

The Bad: Rams 21, Eagles 19

The Takeaway: Without a doubt, the Bad Beat of the day. The Rams trailed the Eagles 37-35 late, but still seemed like a cinch to cover the -2.5 in the second half having outscored Philadelphia 21-13 at that point. The Rams had one play from their own 24-yard line with one second left to win the game. Also included as part of this Bad Beat was the phantom leverage call which cost the Rams an opportunity for a real drive. Regardless, the Rams have displayed such a high level of competency throughout this season, it never occurred to me that this would happen:

A few weeks ago, I wondered if the lateral play was always the best decision when trailing late. After all, the Rams only needed a field goal – the objective would seem to be to give Greg Zuerlein a chance to win the game. Which of the following is more likely to happen? A) a successful 76-yard lateral play or B) a 50-yard pass interference penalty? Keep in mind, Zuerlein’s nickname is Legatron and I hope that has to do with his placekicking abilities. And, yes, Zuerlein is 6 for 7 this year from over 50-yards including a 56-yarder. But it didn’t matter.

For gamblers, yet another lateral-turned-disaster and one more Bad Beat for the season.

If you see a Bad Beat unfold, let me know. I’m @AllStaples on Twitter. See you next week!