Written By Billy Attridge
As we venture down the stretch of the NFL season the games with playoff implications are plentiful. Can the Chargers keep their season alive on the road at the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars? Will the combination of McCown and Fitzpatrick under center lend itself to an over? Can the Saints and Bills manufacture scores in Western New York with 40 degree temperatures? Let’s take a look at three NFL Week 10 market moves, and preview Week 11 Vegas look ahead lines.
Los Angeles (Chargers) @ Jacksonville -3.5 (-115):
The Jaguars opened anywhere from -3 to -4.5. Regardless of where they opened, when the Chargers reached +4.5 there was support from professional bettors. Jacksonville is off a strong performance against the Bengals, while Los Angeles comes in off their bye. The Chargers are beloved by professional bettors — and a team that has attracted sharp money more times than not throughout the year. Los Angeles head coach Anthony Lynn loves to run the ball (inefficiently), and there is no better spot to improve than this week against a Jaguars defense ranked 31st in rush success rate defense. Jacksonville did acquire Marcel Dareus to address this area of concern, and it should be interesting to monitor his play in this game and moving forward. While Los Angeles +4.5 is the professional side, value diminishes the closer we get to 3.
New York (Jets) @ Tampa Bay Over 43.5 (-113):
BetOnline.Ag opened the total at 41, and it’s moved in one direction since. With Tampa Bay starting backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, it’s not a mystery why we’ve seen this movement. Fitzpatrick is known as a gunslinger, who doesn’t mind taking chances, with a “feast or famine” type result. The offense should see a spark, as Fitzpatrick should bring much-needed leadership (and less creative pre-game speeches) to this offense — and there’s no doubt he wants to be successful against a Jets team that felt McCown was a better option this season. Both offenses rank in top 15 in Pass Success rate, and both defenses rank bottom 12 in Pass Success rate. While the Jets have faced the easiest slate of pass defenses in the league, the Buccaneers are not in a position to slow them down. As this total approaches another key number (44), the strength of this move will be shown if it continues to trend upward with little to no resistance.
New Orleans @ Buffalo Under 46.5 (-110):
This opened 48.5 and was bet down to 46, before we arrived at the current price. While the Saints have one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, their struggles on the road over the years are well documented. The forecast for Buffalo on Sunday is 40 degrees. Additionally, the Bills and Saints have both faced the Top 5 easiest slate of pass defenses, and both defenses are in the top 15 in pass defense efficiency. Off six straight wins the Saints stock price might be a touch high. Buffalo, off of a Thursday night loss has had extra rest and prep time. The Bills offense does have some injuries to monitor (OL Glenn, OL Incognito, WR Jones), which could impact their production on Sunday. The under 48.5, 48, 47.5 was a very real move.
Week 11 Vegas Look Ahead Lines via Westgate Superbook:
Home Spread Away
Steelers -7 Titans
Bears +2.5 Lions
Giants +9.5 Chiefs
Dolphins -3.5 Buccaneers
Packers +3 Ravens
Vikings -3 Rams
Texans +2 Cardinals
Browns +7 Jaguars
Saints -7 Redskins
Chargers -3 Bills
Broncos -2.5 Bengals
Patriots* -6 Raiders
Cowboys pk Eagles
Seahawks -3 Falcons
*Game played in Mexico City, Mexico