Written By @AllStaples
“The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket.” –Kin Hubbard
Mr. Hubbard may have been onto something with that quote, and the bettors that endured these College Football and NFL bad beats this week wish they would’ve listened to him.
- The Beat: Florida Atlantic -6.5 versus Marshall
The Bad: Florida Atlantic 30, Marshall 25
The Takeaway: With 14 seconds left in the game and leading 30-23, Lane Kiffin – the most famous Lane since Bryant – ordered punter Ryan Rickel to run (29 yards!) out of the back of the end zone to surrender the safety. This was done to avoid the chance of a blocked punt leading to a touchdown. For gamblers, the score meant a Marshall cover and one incredible Bad Beat. But what makes this really interesting is Kiffin’s referencing the point spread on Tiwtter. The school and Kiffin now contend the Tweet was a joke. But, as Todd mentioned on Twitter, this was the first time he had ever heard a coach reference a point spread.
The strategy of taking a safety was hotly debated. Last year, the Ravens were leading 19-12 against the Bengals when punter Sam Koch ran out the remaining seconds of the game and then stepped out of the back of the end zone. Harbaugh made the same call in their Super Bowl victory as well. Earlier that year, Pete Carroll had made the same call against the Ravens. What does all this have to do with Lane Kiffin? Monte Kiffin. Monte is Lane’s father and defensive assistant at FAU. Pete Carroll and the elder Kiffin were both defensive coaches with the Vikings in the 1980s. Is that where this strategy was first discussed? If so, this Bad Beat has been brewing for over 30 years!
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- The Beat: Florida at Missouri; UNDER 59, 59.5, 60, 60.5, 61
The Bad: Missouri 45, Florida 16
The Takeaway: This is a potential Bad Beat depending on the number you got. The folks at BetOnline.Ag closed at 61.5 so under bettors were clinging to the hook. Other books – offshore and Vegas – ranged from an open of 59 to a close of 62.5. If you were in on the high side, you were in good shape. If you had the 59 through 61, you deserved better.
The under play made sense given the Gator uncertainty at quarterback and new coach Randy Shannon’s conservative reputation. And that played out with the Gators settling for three field goals until a late 4th Quarter score. Following the Gator touchdown, Mizzou took possession of the ball with 5:34 left on the clock and leading comfortably 42-16. Six run plays later and the Tigers faced a 4th and 8 from the Florida 25-yard line with 46 seconds left in the game. For whatever reason, Missouri decided to kick a field goal in that situation. I did wonder if the field goal attempt was in response to the Gator’s earlier onside kick attempt when the game was clearly out of reach. Regardless, it was a Bad Beat.
Speaking of inexplicable field goals:
- The Beat: Minnesota at Michigan; UNDER 38, 38.5, 39, 39.5, 40, 40.5, 41.5
The Bad: Michigan 33, Gophers 10
The Takeaway: In the waning moments of the 4th quarter, the underdog Gophers drove to the Michigan 5-yard line. Facing a 4th down, the Gophers called upon Emmit Carpenter, the winner of the 2016 Bakken-Andersen Kicker of the Year award. The Big House crowd quieted in anticipation. The snap and hold were clean and Carpenter struck the ball well; the pigskin tumbled end-over-end slicing through the brisk, autumnal Michigan air. Those gathered sat stunned as the ball split the uprights. The Gophers – those feisty rodents from the north – had done it. They had made losers out of anyone holding an under ticket.
This total bounced around during the week; offshore books ranged from 38.5 to 41.5. The Vegas shops ticked a bit higher on the low side ranging from 39 to 41.5. But you know what? It didn’t matter because everyone lost! Don’t bother watching that meaningless Gopher field goal, but take a look at Michigan’s oddly comical BIG-I formation:
Coach Fleck and company are rowing the boat…towards a Bad Beat.
BetOnline.Ag Bonus Codes: 75BTB first time deposit (75% Bonus); 50BTB for reloads (50% Bonus)
4. The Beat: Raiders -3 at Dolphins; UNDER 45
The Bad: Raiders 27, Dolphins 24
The Takeaway: When are two-for-ones bad? When they’re Bad Beats.
This game felt like an under. Even though the first half total nudged over the over with 22 points, this game was destined to be an under. The Dolphin offense – according to their own coach – is “awful.” The Raiders Derek Carr has looked more like David Carr than the 2016 version of Derek. A stagnant first half was punctured by this play.
With 2:20 left to play, the Raiders were up 27-16 – covering easily and under the total – when Derek threw an ill-advised interception. And, no, Carr’s pass wasn’t “just like a punt.” It felt like a turnover. And, for gamblers, the INT cracked open the door before the inevitable backdoor cover. Cutler led the Fins 83-yards in 5 plays with a helping one-hand-snag from Devante Parker to cut the score to 27-22. The under was lost. The Drake two-point conversion then cost Raiders backers a win. Another frustrating day for Silver and Black backers.
I’m @AllStaples on Twitter if you want to complain, discuss or taunt.
