Written by James Kempton
Last week I wrote about Manchester United offering the best value to win the EPL. I decided to unpack my bold proclamation with actual facts and figures this week.
City versus United – Perception versus Reality
Everything in life is perception; nothing confirms that more than the events of last weekend in the EPL. It seems like we want to hand the EPL title to Manchester City right now as their price to win the league sits around -220. Manchester United have lengthened from +350 to +450 for the EPL crown so we need to ask the question; is the title really almost over even before we hit November? Is it free money backing Man City for roughly 40% profit? Let’s just think about what actually happened last week and how those events should, if at all, affect our betting patterns.
BetOnline.Ag Bonus Codes: 75BTB first time deposit (75% Bonus); 50BTB for reloads (50% Bonus)
How Many Points For A Win?
Whether you win by five goals or by just a solitary strike you still only get three points for a win. Last weekend City beat a Stoke side intent on shooting themselves in the foot gift wrapping scoring opportunities. Yes, City did play some amazing football that nobody in the land would have been able to defend and that continues to be the case on their best days. However, they also found a way to let a commanding three goal lead get whittled down to a single tally right before the break. Four further goals were pushed past Jack Butland and praise was lavished over Guardiola’s men with what on paper appeared to be a dominating effort. Over at Anfield, their main rivals for the title and city supremacy United, took the field for a difficult away match at one of the toughest places to visit in all of world football. The game finished goalless and the win for City produced a gap of two points between the two Mancunian rivals.
Game Theory
Isn’t what happened last week just what we expected would happen? City hosted a team destined to finish between 9th and 16th in the table come seasons end. United played a tough road game and earned a great point with a solid disciplined effort. If you agree that this was a likely result for both matches in question then surely that should have already been reflected in the prices for the title before last weekend’s kick off? I think City were, as the market reflected, strong favorites despite the sides sitting level on points. Part of that pricing should have taken into account the way the schedules has been laid out in front of the them. It was primarily the manner of City’s victory that saw them shorten as public perception forced the books to adjust a market on disparate results.
Defense Wins Championships
I’m of the opinion that keeping a clean sheet away at Liverpool is more impressive than a win at home vs Stoke that included the concession of two goals. United has kept seven clean sheets in their opening eight league matches and that impresses me greatly. City has kept five clean sheets this season and while they’ve looked tighter at the back they still show some of the defensive frailties that can lead to conceding silly cheap goals in meaningful matches.
The outsiders
It’s a two-horse race for the EPL crown between the two Manchester clubs, but we should at least consider some of the alternatives if you can’t bear backing either of those sides. Third favorites for the title are Tottenham and they can be backed +1600 at BetOnline.AG, but have a number of factors working against them including recent meltdowns in late season situations. Their reliance on Harry Kane leaves Spurs supporters both in the stands and in the betting markets holding their breath every time he is involved in a heavy challenge. Any loss of Kane to injury would kill off their season in an instance. Fourth favorites are Chelsea at +2500 as their small squad is stretched heavily across four competitions they are fighting in this season. Antonio Conte might be a great manager but if the Blues defend their crown this season it will be the greatest title win I can remember (discounting Leicester’s of course). Tickets can be grabbed on Liverpool at +6600 and Arsenal at +8000 and it’s a sad indictment on those clubs that those prices are available just eight games into a season. Books and supporters alike have no faith in either Jurgen Klopp or Arsene Wenger delivering consistent enough performances from their sides to challenge for the title, and nobody should blame them.
