“Fortune brings in some boats that are not steered.” -William Shakespeare
Shakespeare was lucky. He was dead long before he could have taken Boise State -16.
Welcome to this weeks Bad Beats featuring a pair of College Football Beats which set Twitter ablaze. As always, unless noted, lines are courtesy of BetOnline.Ag
1. The Beat: Boise State -16 versus New Mexico
The Bad: Boise State 28, New Mexico 14
The Takeaway: So you took Boise State -16, or hell, you beat the close and laid 14½ and you’re now up 14-7 in the second quarter. You just watched Lamar Jordan, the starting quarterback for New Mexico, get drilled by defensive lineman Chase Hatada. Jordan leaves injured and Hatada leaves ejected. Enter someone named Coltin Gerhart, a third-string graduate transfer student, making his collegiate debut. You do the math: the Broncos only need to outscore the Lobos by 10 points throughout the rest of the game and your ticket is a winner. That -16 is starting to feel like easy money.
But after hanging 44 at Washington State the previous week, the Bronco offense is sluggish completing only two plays greater than 20 yards. As the game moves into the fourth quarter, the anxiety at Albertsons Stadium is palpable; the easy money is no longer feeling quite as easy. However, outstanding play from Boise State special teams key two late Bronco scores extending the lead to 28-7. With 3:11 left to play, the stadium relaxes.
Because this is about Bad Beats, you know what happens next. The ol’ Backdoor Cover featuring an option play, a quarterback scramble, a pair of passes and one incredibly idiotic pass interference penalty. The Lobos are at the Boise State 14. You could feel the Backdoor Cover’s arrival, especially when the announcer jinxes that -16 play with this: “Is the outcome really in doubt? No. But there are some people who are still tuning in with interest in this game.” Moments later more: “New Mexico on the move. Trying to change the outcome for some.”
Next Play:
“We’re just channeling our friend (Brent Musburger) who we miss. That, that’s a big one for a few folks.”
- The Beat: Tennessee +4, +4.5, +5, +5.5 at Florida
The Bad: Florida 26, Tennessee 20
The Takeaway: Fact: a miracle is only a miracle if you’re on the winning side. The story is far less compelling if the Israelites drowned in the Red Sea or if Jesus was unable to turn that water into wine. And that brings us to Tennessee-Florida Saturday evening in the Swamp.
No matter what side you had, there were enough miraculous plays to lead you to believe you had bet on the blessed team (other than Butch Jones’s involvement, of course). The drama began in the 4th quarter with Florida up 13-3. Florida running back Malik Davis seemed to ice the game when he broke free on an apparent 74-yard touchdown run…until he fumbled the ball through the back of the end zone for a touchback. Six plays later, the Vols were in the end zone. Seven plays after that, the Gators had answered with a touchdown of their own. With 5:13 left and down 10 once again, the Vols capped a 2 play(!), 80-yard drive with a Quentin Dormady to Ethan Wolf touchdown pass. On the next series, Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks, who struggled all game, threw a pass which was deflected into the hands of Vol defensive back Rashaan Gaulden. An Aaron Medley field goal later and we’re all tied up at 20. Florida is stunned, Tennessee seems poised to-
And then this happened:
Depending on what number you got, this was either a miracle or shit-in-your-cereal. Tennessee opened as 8 point dogs and was immediately bet down to +5.5 to as low as +4. As Saturday continued, that number made a stop at +6 on its way up to +6.5 prior to kickoff. As always, bettors try to get the best of the number but losing on a Hail Mary? That’s always a Bad Beat!
- The “Almost” Bad Beat: 1st HALF Chiefs -3 versus Eagles
The Bad: Chiefs 6, Eagles 3
The Takeaway: A push on the Chiefs -3 seemed a fitting end to an otherwise forgettable first half of football as both teams combined for less than 300 yards in offense and zero touchdowns. The Chief push seemed certain when the Eagles took possession of the ball at their own 25 with 17 seconds left in the half. A seemingly innocuous Sproles run led to this absolutely ridiculous play. In a flash, the push seemed destined to become a loss. According to the analytics, the Ertz catch also swung the Eagles win probability from a mere 38.1% to a respectable 49%. The Ertz catch could have been a game changer, but it wasn’t.
Buddy Ryan once said, “Kickers are like taxi cabs. You can always go out and hire another one.” Ryan’s former team had recently done just that with the signing of Jake Elliott, who replaced the struggling Caleb Sturgis. Following the Ertz circus catch, Elliott missed the field goal and the push was preserved. The missed field goal kicked the Eagles chance of victory back down to 34.8%.
4. The Beat: Chiefs versus Eagles, TOTAL 46.5
The Bad: Chiefs 27, Eagles 20
The Takeaway: The case for ‘OVER’ being the Bad Beat here is a compelling one. Coming in, we knew Eric Barry was out for the Chiefs, Ronald Darby was out for Eagles and we all saw a livelier Chief offense at New England. During the game, there was the missed field goal as well as Torrey Smith dropping a touchdown pass. The game could have gone over easily.
Or maybe the under was the Bad Beat. After all, you don’t get credit for potential scores: missed field goals and dropped touchdowns happen every week. These two teams, which combined for 9 points in the first half, scored 24 points in the 4th quarter alone. Despite 6.3 yards per rush attempt, the Eagles decided to rely on Carson Wentz on the road at Kansas City. Despite the late score and the Hail Mary attempt, that’s an under play.
But, honestly, the worst Beat in Kansas City was this. Although I had the cameraman on the money line.
See you next week! I’m at @AllStaples on Twitter or tweet using the hashtag #BTBbadbeat to discuss.
