Analysis provided by James Kempton
The column is called EPL 12.6 as that is where we are; exactly 12.6% of the way through the season. In any sphere of life drawing definitive conclusions when you are less than 13% through a process can be dangerous. For bettors this overreaction erodes bankrolls if you put too much faith in teams from the optics of such a small sample size.
Every team has played three EPL games but as we know not all schedules are created equally and the relative strength, or weakness, of a teams’ schedule plays a huge part in how a team begins a season. This then translates into a perception that bettors and books hold when pricing various markets. Let’s take a look at the stock report on five clubs to see where they can go from here for the remaining 87.4% of the campaign to give us the edge we so covet.
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Huddersfield Town
Seven points from three games and these Terrier underdogs are barking loud and proud. A trip to a Crystal Palace side who have failed to score and home matches with Newcastle and Southampton have eased the Yorkshire side into life in the Premiership. Tougher times are sure to be ahead and they can still be backed at +300 for relegation. There is the option of waiting before placing this wager as their next set of fixtures come against West Ham (a), Leicester (h) and Burnley (a) so picking up 4 or more points is a very real possibility. However that’s when the season really starts for the newcomers as they’ll face Tottenham (h), Swansea (a), Man Utd (h) and Liverpool (a). By the end of those games we will have a better idea of where these Yorkshire Terriers will finish come May. Despite their good start they are unlikely to register more than 45 points so that relegation wager should keep you interested all season.
Everton
The signing of central defender Michael Keane looks to have shored up a defense that at times last season was sieve like. Scoring goals on a regular basis is clearly going to present them with problems especially now with Wayne Rooney’s off field problems sure to cause distractions. Under Ronald Koeman this squad should have enough resilience to win the games they should and be reliable in spots against the lesser lights of the league. Be wary though of siding with them to cover handicaps of over half a goal as your value diminishes greatly when you start backing them -0.75 and above. Stick to outright bets and those markets for them to win to nil and/or Everton win and the under 2.5 goals.
Manchester United
Are we ready to crown United EPL champions already? Three games in, nine points, ten goals and three clean sheets and surely the rest of the season is just a formality? From starting the season at a price of +450 for the title they have now been cut to a best price of +325. In many ways given the way they have started the campaign they should actually be priced shorter. Maybe the books remember last season when Man City won their first six games of the season and there was an assumption that they would waltz away with the title. Although City won those six matches to start the season, they conceded in five of them so I am of the belief that books haven’t reacted strong enough given United’s defensive performances. With questions hanging over all the other title challengers this could turn into a direct derby showdown between the two Manchester clubs. For individual games the books appear to have adjusted as they’re making United -1 for a trip to Stoke this weekend and that looks a very tight price. However longer term wagers still do appear to be priced very attractively.
Swansea City
It is incredible how just one signing can change a team’s whole season but that is what may have happened this week for the Swans. Renato Sanches has joined the Welsh club on loan from Bayern Munich and we’ve seen in recent seasons (think Jermaine Defoe at Sunderland) how one truly effective player can inject life into an average squad. The re-signing of Wilfred Bony from Manchester City and the purchase of Sam Clucas from Hull has brought some much needed optimism into the camp. It is the signing of Sanches though that has rallied the Swans’ loyal fanbase and I sense the next month could see some positive results for the Welsh club. Looking at the projected prices value should abound in their upcoming matches.
West Ham United
Slavan Bilic has been thrown under the bus by the West Ham owners recently declaring that Bilic “was happy with his squad.” Clearly this was a message that if they fail it’s down to the manager, absolving the powers that be from any blame. In such a weak position Bilic was not able to reject these claims from the clubs hierarchy and has been hung out to dry. Bar their opening day trip to Old Trafford the Hammers have a fairly easy first ten games to the season so if they are in and around the relegation zone after those fixtures then I am sure Bilic will be on his way. In fact a poor result on Monday Night Football at home to Huddersfield and then away at West Brom a week on Saturday may even seal his fate sooner. Any book where you see Bilic listed at plus money for ‘Next EPL Manager To Leave His Post’ should be strongly considered.
