It’s every fan’s right to over react to one week’s worth of college football results. Remember though, no team is ever as good (Oklahoma, Penn State, Clemson) or as bad (Washington, Texas, Baylor) as they looked through just 60 minutes. Here are 10 Gambling takeaways, in no particular order, from what I saw during Week 1.
10) Kevin Sumlin was working on borrowed time coming into the season and it’s only going to get worse after Sunday’s debacle. Losing Nick Starkel for an extended period of time won’t help an offense that sputtered down the stretch in squandering a 44-10 lead at the Rose Bowl. Unfortunately, from a betting perspective we may have to wait a few weeks before trying to get a piece of the Aggies since games against Nicholls St and UL Lafayette should get them relatively healthy. Silver lining? They did end their 9 game ATS losing skid cashing in +6.5 vs UCLA.
[ BetOnline.Ag Bonus Codes: 75BTB first time deposit (75% Bonus); 50BTB for reloads (50% Bonus) ]
9) Winning the stat sheet doesn’t always translate to winning bets. Don’t let one outlier ruin the process because if you fall victim to score-watching your ability to recognize market inefficiencies is gone. N.C. State owned a 29-12 first down edge, 504-246 advantage in yards, and 13 more minutes of possession but came up short against South Carolina. The Gamecocks averaged a ridiculous 7.02 yards per point, which is bound to regress in coming weeks. For those calling South Carolina a dark horse in the division I need to see more than 250 yards of offense on a weekly basis.
8) If you can’t be strong in the kicking game getting wins and covers becomes an uphill battle, especially on the road. Miami of Ohio controlled the stat sheet in their 31-26 loss to Marshall but surrendered two 97+ yard kick returns and a pick 6 to boot. The Redhawks defense held The Herd under 300 yards and to just 10 points but were done in by the other units.
7) Covering as double-digit dogs is damn near impossible when you don’t run a single play in opponent territory. LSU’s 27-0 scoreline against BYU wasn’t nearly indicative enough of how dominant they were in New Orleans. Not only did the Tigers defense not let the Cougars cross midfield they held Tanner Mangum and the BYU offense to 6 first downs, 97 yards, and only 18:06 in time of possession.
[ Sign up for the best NFL contest this season with Bet the Board’s $5K Pick-Five Football Free Roll ]
6) Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. West Virginia lost their season opener to Virginia Tech but to my eyes appeared the better football team with stats to back it up. Despite returning less than 30% of last year’s productivity, the ‘Neers amassed nearly 600 yards of offense under Will Grier’s leadership against a top 15 caliber defense. The team also found a tandem of receivers in Gary Jennings and converted QB David Sills that may terrorize opposing Big XII stop units all fall long.
5) Baylor and UNLV should be absolutely embarrassed by their Week 1 efforts. Just when the Bears were poised to be the biggest upset victims (-35 vs Liberty) UNLV one-upped them later in the evening becoming a punchline as college football’s largest favorite (-45) to lose a game outright at the hands of college football powerhouse Howard.
4) Fade the elite teams at your own peril. There’s always a chance to beat the best but Week 1 was not it with teams inside the AP top 10 posting a 7-3 ATS mark. That record does come with an asterisk since Alabama and Florida State cancelled each other out. Remember, the money isn’t any greener if it comes from betting against Alabama or Texas State; there’s no reason to be a betting hero.
[ Week 2 College Football Podcast with special guest Joel Klatt of Fox Sports ]
3) The best part about social media is that everyone has a voice. The worst part about social media is that everyone has a voice. Reading grown men berate college kids continues to be one of the most disturbing trends we see every season. Also; if you can’t take accountability for your own betting losses it might be time to find another hobby rather than blaming kids or officials.
2) College football is a marathon, not a sprint. Identifying value in the futures market is an exercise that isn’t done after the season starts. Always be willing to attack the Heisman, National Championship, or Conference title markets with vigor looking to capitalize on doom or gloom forecasts. Just rewind to last year when everyone wrote USC off after a slow start yet the Trojans rebounded to win the league. Oddsmaker overreaction, even in a high hold market, can be a bettor’s best friend.
1) Everyone can short their Texas Longhorn stock right now, I’ll gladly pick up those discounted shares especially if dual-threat QB Sam Ehlinger starts getting reps. I’m not going to call the Horns a viable national title contender or even worthy of discussion for the league title with that defense, but losing the home opener isn’t a sign of the apocalypse. However, let’s see how the betting market responds before we bury the Tom Herman hire after one week. This is a coach that’s made a living as a giant killer while struggling in the favorite role (See wins over Oklahoma and Louisville with a loss to Uconn). There could be ample value backing Texas as early as two weeks from now against USC, although I want to give the new head man in Austin time to settle the program down before boosters chase him out of town with pitchforks.
