No Kentucky Derby winner? No Preakness winner? Not even the 2-year old champ? No problem. The 2017 Belmont Stakes might be lacking star power but it definitely does not lack betting appeal. Twelve sophomores will go to the post in a wide-open affair, traversing Belmont’s famous mile-and-a-half oval, traveling a farther distance than they ever have and likely ever will. Here’s my look at this year’s field:
All analysis provided by @KyDerbyJay
1 – Twisted Tom – Intriguing longshot from the barn of Preakness-winning trainer Chad Brown. This guy is undefeated in 2017 since joining the Brown camp. Captured the Federico Tesio at Laurel in April, typically a Preakness prep, but Brown has been aiming for this one all along. Last two wins have been via a powerful closing kick; if he doesn’t leave himself too much to do, he should be doing some strong running late. And the breeding? His dam is by a Belmont winner, his second dam is by a Belmont winner, his third dam is by a Belmont winner, and his fourth dam is by the sire of a Belmont winner. Solid longshot selection.
2- Tapwrit – Impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, but beaten by double-digit lengths last two out. Still, his 6th place finish in the Kentucky Derby was much better visually than on paper and he was one of the few still moving forward at the race’s end. Pletcher’s barn has had success with the Derby to Belmont angle in past with a winner in Palace Malice and another strong finisher in Destin. He’s been training very nicely for this one, and the two-hole should give him the opportunity to save some ground without getting too far out of the mix. Pletcher’s success in this race cannot be ignored and he is one of my top win candidates. Watch the toteboard for proper value in either direction come race day.
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3 – Gormley – Wasn’t a big fan of his prior to the Derby, but his win in the Santa Anita Derby does look a bit better now than it did then. His 9th place Derby finish was as troubled as any horse in the field, and was probably better than it looked. Still, I’m not convinced he’s much of a threat here and the single-digit odds that accompany this pony do not interest me in the least.
4 – J Boys Echo – Big chance at a big price. Gets a major jockey upgrade with Albarado back healthy as the number one call for trainer Dale Romans. Owns the best Beyer of anyone in the field earned in an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes, beating Preakness winner Cloud Computing by 3 1/2 lengths. He was pretty terrible in the Derby, beaten by 23 lengths, but I think it might be fair to draw a line through that one as perhaps he simply didn’t care for the wet track and mud in his face. If he maintains a middle-of-the-pack placement through the race’s first mile, he could be in prime position to grab a share of this one. Lots to like here at an advantageous number.
5 – Hollywood Handsome – There is no doubt trainer Dallas Stewart can get horses on the board in Triple Crown races at big prices — see Macho Again, Golden Soul, Commanding Curve, and Tale of Verve all as examples of his handiwork. That said, I’m not expecting him to follow suit with this colt. The breeding looks like a major red flag and his plodding one-run closer style is likely to be ineffective, especially when there are similar types that do it better. Pass.
6 – Lookin At Lee – He’s been a model of consistency this spring with no reason to think he won’t give another honest effort in this one. Still, it’s important to note that he’s still 0 for 8 in graded stakes attempts and this is his third race in five weeks. His one-run style has proved successful in crashing exotics, but not so successful in finding the winner’s circle. Expect more of the same on Saturday.
7 – Irish War Cry – He’s the morning-line favorite, and appears to be deserving of that accolade. Faltered in the Derby as one of the favorites and lacked any serious punch in the lane despite looming large entering the stretch. He certainly seems to possess the best back-class of the field and he’s probably the fastest horse among these. Additionally, he’s going to have as much to say about the pace this race is run at as any. It’s won’t surprise anyone if he wins this race in wire-to-wire fashion. Still, in a race that looks like it will provide a ton of value, he’s probably going to close with the shortest-price in the field. He’s likely going to have to be at least 4-1 before I show much interest.
8 – Senior Investment – His Preakness move from 7th to 3rd in the last 100 yards was pretty striking. That said, as with his Lexington Stakes win, he benefited from relatively fast fractions, and a solid pace to close into. He may not get that in the Belmont. There’s no doubt in my mind that this guy is improving, and he may be getting good at the right time. Still, I can’t help but think that the time to play him was at 31-1 in the Preakness; his odds in this one won’t sniff half that.
9 – Meantime – Impressive in breaking his maiden at Keeneland, which he followed with a runner-up in the Peter Pan over this track. He set the pace in that race, but did appeared to tire. I suppose a case could be made for him if he makes a solo lead, and lulls the field to sleep, but that’s a scenario I don’t see happening. Looks like a pace factor that is unlikely to be around at the finish.
10 – Multiplier – Illinois Derby winner left himself too much to do in Preakness, but did gain some ground in stretch, losing a photo for 4th. He can be a factor with a total pace collapse, but I think he’s probably a cut below the majority of these and the breeding appears to be a negative factor to boot. Use in deeper exotic tickets perhaps, but is mostly a toss for me.
11 – Epicharis – (SCRATCHED) Japanese invader has done little wrong in his career so far going undefeated in his homeland before a second-place finish in the UAE Derby. Belmont was the race his connections have pointed for all along, and the breeding (Sunday Silence is his grandpa) suggests the 1 1/2 mile distance won’t be a problem. He’s an enigma definitely, and things got further complicated when Classic Empire dropped out and shortened his odds from 8-1 to a 4-1 morning line. He could turn out to be a superstar, but shipping over has not yet been a recipe for success in Triple Crown races, and at a price that seems lower than it should be I am inclined to let him beat me in this one.
12 – Patch – The other Pletcher entry which follows the Derby to Belmont path is an angle that should be applied to him as well. That said, I don’t think he’s as talented as his stablemate Tapwrit, and, by all accounts was clearly outpaced when they worked in tandem during a five-furlong breeze on June 2nd over the Belmont track. As with the Derby, he draws the outside post and while the 12 hole in the Belmont isn’t as much of a death sentence as the 20 hole in the Derby, it’s still not a positive angle. Taking a stand against.
[Want to hear more of Jay’s Belmont thoughts? He joined this weeks Bet The Board Podcast!]
How They’ll Finish: I think if Irish War Cry runs his race and controls the pace he is the most likely candidate for winning. However, as noted above he seems to offer the least value of anyone in the race with the possible exception of Epicharis. As such, I will try to beat him with Tapwrit and J Boys Echo, with the latter potentially offering a nice-sized payday. Accordingly, I will make him my top selection. I will be boxing these five horses below in exactas and trifectas:
1) J Boys Echo
2) Tapwrit
3) Irish War Cry
4) Lookin At Lee
5) Twisted Tom
