Written By: Billy Attridge
Approaching the NFL betting market is unlike any other sport; perception is colossal and the public can have their way in shaping numbers on a week-to-week basis. Removing emotional attachments to organizations, along with being able to buy a team one week and sell it the next is the key to deciphering value in the market. Here are two football teams to watch moving forward that may offer betting value before a perception shift.
Kansas City Chiefs: When it comes to pregame planning, few come close to the level of Andy Reid. In the division, the Chiefs have the very best coaching mind. Kansas City is 3-2, right in the thick of a competitive AFC west race. Already 2-0 in division, KC has the pieces to win the West. They have the Saints, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Titans all at home where they will be roughly a touchdown favorite in all them. Road trips to Indianapolis, Carolina, and Atlanta will all be priced in the market as competitive contests. Prices range from +160 to +180 across the betting board to take the AFC West title, and that price is worth a wager. Justin Houston is slotted to return to the field Week 9, and if he is close to 100% this defense will be significantly upgraded. KC is a team who could go over their season win total of 9.5, and currently have the 9th best odds to win the Super Bowl at Bet Online (+1800). If you’re a believer in Reid and his Chiefs it’s time to “buy low” on Missouri’s new favorite team.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are the darlings of the 2016 NFL season and deservedly so. Minnesota is undefeated, both straight up and against the spread. They’ve looked especially impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play (1st in NFL), #2 in overall defensive efficiency, and haven’t allowed more than 16 points in any contest. Sam Bradford has also performed well taking over this offense on short notice; grading as the 5th most efficient quarterback out of 35 qualifiers through Week 6. That said, in sports betting it’s important to analyze these teams with a stock market-like approach. Adhering to that concept, the Vikings have peaked, and fall into my “sell high” category. Some of my concerns with them include: A measly 2.5 yards per carry (last in the NFL), 4.9 yards per play (30th), and a fortunate schedule thus far, facing the Packers, Giants, and Texans at home, and defeating the Panthers (1-5) and Titans (3-3) on the road. This week, they travel to face an Eagles team coming off two straight road losses, and are currently laying -2.5 (-120) at Bet Online. I expect the Vikings to receive plenty of support from the betting public laying under a field goal, and fully expect professional bettors to be holding an Eagles+3 (-110) or better ticket by 1:00pm on Sunday. Waiting for this number to rise closer to Sunday would be best practice here.
