We have 100% more data than we did this time last Thursday, and NFL Week 3 is usually the beginning stage of separation between contenders and pretenders. This week still has a lot of potential for overreactions, and we have seen some significant market moves from the previous weeks look ahead lines.
Here are the NFL Week 3 games to keep an eye on:
Pittsburgh -7 (-116) @ Chicago:
BetOnline.Ag opened this game with the Steelers 7.5-point favorites, and we have seen that drop to a juiced 7, despite 75%+ of the tickets coming in on Big Ben and Company. Pittsburgh is coming off a non-conference home victory against a Bradford-less Vikings, and face their rival, Baltimore Ravens, next week. The Bears are off a game in Tampa Bay where they had a better yards per play average (5.0 to 4.6), but lost the turnover battle (-3), which ultimately crushed any hope they had of winning or covering. There are still plenty of hooks being offered in the market, but I suspect come kick Sunday professional bettors will have gobbled them up.
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Denver -3 (-112) @ Buffalo:
This line opened Sunday evening at BetOnline.ag with Denver -1, and was bet up to Denver -3 across the board. Denver is off a monster home win against a very popular and public Dallas Cowboys squad, and is 2-0 on the year with a home game versus Oakland on deck. Lucky for them, they take a trip east to Western New York, where the Bills are off a close road loss to the Panthers (dropped pass on the one), and tout a tough run defense to potentially make this a game. The early line move is partially real, but with a flow of public money that will come in the rest of the week on Denver, there will surely be an appetite from some professional bettors looking to grab +3.5 or even +4 if they can.
Seattle @ Tennessee -3 (+100):
BetOnline.ag opened Seattle -3 and there was early Titan money along with a manual market adjustment moving this line to Tennessee -3 (-110) by Monday afternoon. At the key number of 3, we have seen some resistance in the market with a little pull back on Seattle. This is a huge non-conference game, as both these teams were prohibitive favorites to win their divisions, and one of them will start off 1-2. Cantor Gaming Preseason line had Seattle favored by 2, so we have seen a 5-point adjustment since then. It’s no mystery that Seattle has some offensive line issues, and Tennessee will look to exploit that on Sunday. Despite this, I believe the line closes south of Titans -3 before kickoff.
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Week 3 NFL Look Ahead Lines from the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas
Home Spread Away
Packers -11.5 Bears
*Dolphins -1 Saints
Patriots -9 Panthers
Cowboys -8.5 Rams
Vikings N/A Lions
Texans +2.5 Titans
Jets +4.5 Jaguars
Browns +1.5 Bengals
Ravens PK Steelers
Falcons -9 Bills
Buccaneers -6 Giants
Chargers +1 Eagles
Cardinals -7 49ers
Broncos -1.5 Raiders
Seahawks -14.5 Colts
Chiefs -8.5 Redskins
*Game played in London, England.
