By @Hookslide23
There’s a famous Winston Churchill quote that goes; “you can’t believe everything you read on the Internet — also, don’t sweat the scores when you bet.” He was absolutely right about both of those things.
“Sweating scores” refers to the practice of watching the game(s) you’ve bet on, as they happen, in terrifying real-time fashion. On the plus side, you get to keep an eye on your game(s) and enjoy every last dramatic moment. On the negative side, there is actually almost nothing enjoyable about this process. Sure, every touchdown takes you to the pinnacle of sports euphoria, because you’ve got real money riding on it. But conversely, every pick-six is capable of sending you into an apoplectic fit.
The trouble with riding this roller coaster on any given weekend is that if it ends on a low note, little Tilt Demons show up and start eating your brain. Oh yes, Tilt is real, and it applies just as much to sports betting as it does to any other games. I’ll prove it.
In last week’s column, I explained my basic NFL betting strategy: find two or three matchups that are basically 50/50 coin flips, and bet on the team with the higher payout.
The Indianapolis Colts, perhaps due to last week’s loss, were at +250. No brainer. I also picked the Miami Dolphins at +160, and the Washington Redskins at +125 all at BetOnline.AG.
My completely rational, non-emotional, detached thought process all week after placing those bets was, “relax, you only need two of those games to cash and you’ll make money, it doesn’t even matter which two, BUT HOLY [bleep] [bleep] WITH A [bleep] CRUSTY [bleep] [bleep] [bleep] THE COLTS HAD BETTER [bleep] [bleep] WIN THEIR GAME!”
I want that +250. I want that +250 so bad I can taste it. A win here would put me seriously ahead of schedule for this NFL season. I am absolutely, 100%, next-level invested in this game in a very emotional way. I’m dreaming about it on Thursday night. I’m distracted by it Friday afternoon at work.
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On Saturday morning, my wife greets me, “Good morning, honey, I made your favorite coffee,” and I reply with deep sincerity, “aw, thanks, I love you, +250.” We haven’t spoken since.
This is precisely the kind of game where I should not be sweating the scores. I should not be watching this game on Sunday afternoon. In fact, I probably shouldn’t be watching any games on Sunday afternoon, I should just go see a movie and disengage.
My solution: watch baseball and use Google to periodically check in on the Colts game. This is a compromise, a half-sweating of the scores. It was still a foolish idea, but given how things turned out, I’m very glad I wasn’t watching the game live.
A 10-3 lead at halftime certainly didn’t feel safe, but taking that 10-3 lead into the fourth quarter gave me just enough false hope to make it hurt later. I let myself begin to believe that the +250 was going to be mine. And then the fourth quarter ended in 13-13 tie, and that’s just about the worst thing in a world when you’re trying not to sweat the scores.
The Colts lost 16-13 in overtime, I said so many curse words that I ran out of conventional profanities and began inventing new ones. Goodbye, +250, for a brief moment in time, in my imagination, you were mine.
This is when the Tilt Demons show up. I start scanning the list of remaining games, start looking for unrealistic opportunities to get that +250 back, even though I know those opportunities aren’t there. I already researched this before choosing my slate of games, I ran the numbers, and I know that any games worth betting this week were the three I picked.
Don’t tilt, don’t tilt, don’t tilt, don’t tilt, don’t tilt AAAAAUUUUUUGH, STUPID COLTS!
Now here’s how this story ends: both the Dolphins and the Redskins won, which means I cashed two of my three bets. I’m up 1.85 betting positions for the weekend, and I’m up 2.25 positions on the season so far. Everything is going well, I should be thrilled. But I’m still a little sour, because I got too emotionally invested in one game, and I let myself sweat those scores just a tiny bit.
So don’t do what I did. Don’t sweat scores. Don’t let the Tilt Demons get you. Do what Winston Churchill would do, and go have a drink instead.
