Written By Billy Attridge
All 32 teams are in training camp for the upcoming 2021 NFL season, one that will bring about significant change in multiple ways. We now have an 18th regular season week, while the preseason decreased to 3 games for all but the Cowboys and Steelers. Covid-19 and other variants don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, so teams will have to adjust to the new rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated players. With more relaxed policies will other strains wreak havoc week-to-week for bettors and bookmakers alike? Time will tell.
Regardless it’s that time of year again. Every off-season we look back on the season that was to see how each team stacks up to the Pythagorean Expectation Test, a trivial mathematical equation that reveals what our eyes potentially could not. It’s worth repeating every year (and I do), that this exercise is a minimal part of what is required to gain an edge in the NFL futures market, where your money will be tied up for a minimum of 5 months. Taking an in-depth look at personnel changes in the front office and sideline is critical to determining the future. Schedule challenges, injuries, training camp reports, and even vaccination rates are going to play a role this season as we break down the potential success of each franchise.
Using point differential and turnover margin, the Pythagorean Expectation Formula helps us arrive at a win number that more accurately reflects team strength. Most teams play relatively close to their Pythagorean number, while others greatly over or under perform. Below are the top five teams in each category that greatly played above or below expectation last season.
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Overachievers:
Kansas City Chiefs – Expected Wins (9.778); Actual Wins (14)
Cleveland Browns – Expected Wins (7.468); Actual Wins (11)
Buffalo Bills – Expected Wins (10.063); Actual Wins (13)
Green Bay Packers – Expected Wins (10.158); Actual Wins (13)
Tennessee Titans – Expected Wins (8.300); Actual Wins (11)
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Underachievers:
Jacksonville Jaguars – Expected Wins (4.998); Actual Wins (1)
Atlanta Falcons – Expected Wins (7.449); Actual Wins (4)
Houston Texans – Expected Wins (7.069); Actual Wins (4)
Philadelphia Eagles – Expected Wins (6.943); Actual Wins (4)
San Francisco 49ers – Expected Wins (8.423); Actual Wins (6)
While analyzing these teams I was able to focus on one in particular whose number has not moved to where it’s impossible to invest. The team that underachieved most last season was the Jacksonville Jaguars. After their shocking come-from-behind win as an 8+ point underdog to Indianapolis Week 1, Jacksonville proceeded to lose every game, ending the season with a 1-15 record. The Pythagorean Expectation pegged the Jaguars closer to a 5-win team when factoring in their -8 turnover margin.
There’s so much to unwrap when looking to invest money on a Jaguars season long win total, so let’s start with what actually transpired on the field last season. Jacksonville was 0-4 in games decided by a field goal or less, and 1-6 in one score games. Jacksonville had a -26 sack margin, with an abysmal 18 sacks the entire season. They also happened to be one of the most penalized teams in the league with a -29 penalty margin. The Jaguars completely overhauled their coaching staff after the season, getting rid of dead-weight Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, whose run-heavy first down play-calls handicapped the offense all season. Multiple players have spoken about a positive culture change with renewed energy now that Urban Meyer is steering the ship. I’m bullish on new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer more than most. Both coaches came under scrutiny from Pete Carroll in Seattle for their pass-happy ways.
The entire offensive line returns – and while their play was below average last season a real off-season together should help continuity and lead to this unit ticking up. The bright spot on the offensive line is all-world center Brandon Linder, a massive welcome gift for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The weapons at Trevor’s disposal are underrated with Robinson and Etienne in the backfield and a sneaky trio of “juniors” at receiver with DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr., and Laviska Shenault Jr. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville’s defense dealt with below average health in 2020; completely derailing this young unit from having any chance at momentum and the results suffered. With edge rushers Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson healthy, new DC Joe Cullen has discussed running a more versatile defense with players having the ability to play multiple positions. This style fits the aforementioned pieces along with stud linebacker Myles Jack. Jacksonville will need corner Shaquill Griffin to be the leader of a young secondary full or promise but hasn’t yet shown the tools to be an average unit. Going glass half-full, it’s impossible to be as bad as they were last year, ranking near the bottom in almost every significant pass defense metric. While the schedule of opposing offenses Jacksonville faces in 2021 is tough, we’re projecting an easier group overall than 2020.
The final piece to the Jaguars win total puzzle is their division, arguably the worst in football. Oddsmakers at FanDuel have pegged the Houston Texans as the worst NFL team, and there’s real traction with Deshaun Watson being granted his wish of playing quarterback for another franchise. Indianapolis is solid everywhere except the position that matters most, and it won’t be easy filling the void left by Anthony Castonzo either, especially with Quenton Nelson out 5-12 weeks. Tennessee will have success offensively even with Arthur Smith’s departure but the defense continues to be a concern, particularly the secondary. Playing the 4th easiest schedule this season, there is opportunity for Jacksonville and new head coach Urban Meyer to win this division if a couple dominoes fall their way. As always, I recommend our savvy readers to price shop with Jacksonville’s win total anywhere from 6 (-140) to 6.5 (-101). We’re valuing a half win at .47 cents this season, so OVER 6 (-140) is the preferred option.
