Bowl games are a different handicap than the regular season. The game itself doesn’t change but the thought process required by successful handicappers to thrive during the postseason definitely does. We can’t emphasis this point enough that reading, even more so than studying the numbers, is IMPERATIVE before going to the window with a bowl bet. Here are a few things to consider before jumping into the bowl bonanza head first.
(Note: most of these tips are more applicable to non playoff bowl games)
The 60 minute season
Getting an abundance of prep time is a different situation than anything teams encounter during the regular season (unless you’re Army). Players recover from nagging injuries, coaches create new game plans, coaches change sidelines, and all the momentum built during a 12-game regular season can subside.
Don’t discount a team’s body of work during the regular season but expecting the form you saw from a team to finish the season carrying over into bowl games is a recipe for disaster. Take the time to identify the coach’s and programs that performed better out of byes or when matched up against teams with similar styles to their bowl foe. The conference supremacy argument is nice but individual on-field match-ups are more important.
There’s also a very real chance teams are over valued or undervalued by oddsmakers given how they closed the campaign creating ample wagering opportunity. The handicapper that’s done his homework looks to zero in on those teams not being priced on the heels of recency bias.
Trending Up (potentially overvalued):
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Iowa
USC
Penn St
Oklahoma
Trending Down (potentially undervalued)
Wake Forest
Minnesota
Baylor
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Louisville
Florida
Auburn
Motivation – vacation or a business trip?
The age old question in handicapping bowls: who the hell actually wants to be there to play a football game? This intangible is only identified through extensive reading and to a lessor extent from identifying historical context around a game, match-up, or program. Players and Coaches are human, they’ll typically tip their hand about the level of focus or importance they’re placing on a postseason victory. In the past underdogs in second tier bowls have thrived when using the disrespect card finding another gear the favorite can’t match with talent alone. Look to identify those group of 5 schools with a ton of veterans seeking to finish their competitive football career with a performance they’ll take with them forever; you can’t go wrong backing teams willing to empty the tank in an otherwise meaningless contest.
Lead by example
Know the coach and his track record when it comes to the postseason.
Don’t predicate entire handicapping decisions on this factoid but it’s not mere coincidence certain coaches excel while others are well-known cash burners. Even the biggest names in college football struggle to get their players ready to play when it’s not a marquee bowl game. We’ve seen plenty of failures from Steve Spurrier, Bob Stoops, and Nick Saban lead teams when the stakes aren’t there.
For every coach that can’t get his players focused there are those at schools where bowl games aren’t a rite of passage but rather a reward. Programs like Miami OH, Colorado, Army, South Carolina, and Wake Forest aren’t frequent bowlers so expect all of them to seek that final victory in their surprise seasons.
Here’s a list of teams entering bowl season with some coaching concerns. Unfortunately, there is no blanket rule for handling interim coaches, approach each situation independently.
Tom Herman (Houston) accepted job at Texas
Jeff Brohm (Western Kentucky) accepted job at Purdue
Matt Rhule (Temple) accepted a job at Baylor
Jim Grobe (Baylor) coaching final game
Kevin Wilson (Indiana) Fired
Willie Taggart (USF) accepted job at Oregon
Stay hydrated…avoid the thirst for action
The bowl schedule grows every year. As kids we never thought teams like South Alabama could play Air Force in Tucson for a postseason trophy…in front of 100’s of fans.
With so many pre-game wagers, props, first halves, half times, and totals available there’s nothing out there that says you need to find an angle for every game. The temptation is to quench that action thirst before the eight month hiatus sends you into gambling hibernation.
Patience is a virtue lost on handicappers. Recreational bettors have different expectations than professionals when it comes to these games. If your goal is to find action that’s fine; develop a game plan to differentiate strength in positions. There’s no worse feeling than looking back at a bowl season gone awry by flat betting games you love for the same amount as the Hawaii Bowl you used to sneak away from the family on Christmas.
Remember bowl season is a reward for most college football teams to celebrate their season. There’s no reason you shouldn’t do the same as a bettor, just put in the required homework leaving those pockets flush for ringing in the new year.
