Written By @Hookslide23
NFL Week 15 has come and gone, but Week 16 is on the horizon. I wish I could say last week was a winner for me, but alas, I was one of the miserable many who got caught in the crosshairs of Patriots-Steelers Sunday; left shaking my head and joining the chorus of those asking, “What, exactly, is a ‘catch’?” and, more importantly, “Can I get a refund on that bet?”
Deep breath, fellow frustrated bettors. This is supposed to fun. This is supposed to be entertainment.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!
Ok, that’s out of my system, so let’s get on with the substance of this week’s topic. It’s Tuesday, the NFL week wrapped Monday night and we’re back at it again Sunday with another full slate of games. When do you start strategizing and planning? Your answer should be “as soon as possible.”
Don’t wait until the last-minute to start researching upcoming games.
Here’s a rough sketch of what my week looks like:
- Recover from hangover (hey, you gotta celebrate those wins, right?)
- Take first look at who’s playing this week
- Start assigning true odds for each team (I provided a very basic formula for this last week)
- Refine those true odds, because your first pass was hilariously wrong
- Check opening moneylines to see which games give you an edge (see my column from Week 12)
- Finalize your preliminary list of the 3-to-5 games you plan to bet
- Recover from hangover (hey, it’s Hump Day, you gotta celebrate that, right?)
- Talk to some trusted friends about the bets you plan to make, get their input
- Ok, now they’re laughing at you, maybe get some new friends
- Surf the Internet (especially Bet The Board) for clues about the games you plan to bet
- Check the current lines and odds to see if any of them have moved in your favor
- Recover from hangover (hey, it’s almost the weekend, you should celebrate, right?)
- If one of your planned matchups is playing tonight, check those moneylines one more time and place your bet at BetOnline.AG
- Did you place your bet?
- What do you mean you forgot your password?
- Siiiiiiiiigh. Ok, use the “forgot password” link
- Check your email for a “reset password” code
- No, look, you might have to check your “Junk Mail” or “Spam Mail” folder for it
- Did you get in?
- I have no idea why it’s not working, I’m not the help desk! Try turning off your ad-blocker!
- Ok, I’m going to watch Thursday Night Football now
- Recover from hangover (hey, big win last night, gotta celebrate, right?)
- Check the moneylines on your remaining matchups
- If the prices are super sweet on any of those games, place the bet(s)
- Have sudden last-minute doubts
- Decide to give yourself the safety net of a parlay bet (just remember to use my formula from this column)
- Immediately question the wisdom of placing that parlay
- Go for a long walk, question the meaning of life
- Get up early
- Eat some Golden Grahams cereal
- Watch cartoons
- Whoops, sorry, this is my kid’s “to-do” list for Saturday
- Check those moneylines again and pull the trigger on the bet(s) where necessary
- Go read a gambling book, watch a gambling movie, anything to take a break from all of this until tomorrow’s Big Day
- You’re just gonna watch College Football, aren’t you?
- Can I come over? I’ll bring beer
- Recover from hangover (thanks for inviting me over, sorry I stayed so late and drank all your beer)
- If you haven’t placed all of your bets, do so now
- Go do laundry, go to the gym, do anything but “sweat the scores“
- You’re totally gonna sweat the scores anyway, aren’t you?
- Can I come over? I’ll bring more beer
- Give up drinking
- Congratulations on your big winning weekend
- If one of your matchups was the Monday Night Football game, place that bet now
- Seriously, don’t sweat the scores this time, take a break and get ready to start this cycle over again tomorrow
We’re almost to the finish line, friends. Best of luck as you grind out these final weeks of the NFL regular season!