Written By Billy Attridge
Jumping into this week’s market moves we’ll touch on two games providing value due to public perception which has caused inflation. There’s also a division match-up in the AFC West featuring strong offensive advantages for both teams. As always, we head out west to the desert for Week 15 Vegas look ahead lines!
Oakland @ Kansas City Over 48.5 (-110):
This total opened 47.5, dipped to 46, and then shot back up to the current price with a real move. When these two teams met earlier in the year, Oakland pulled out a last second victory, 31-30. Both teams averaged nearly 7.0 yards per play, both QB’s threw for 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and over 340 yards a piece. With Kansas City head coach Andy Reid giving up play-calling duties last week to offensive coordinator Matty Nagy, we saw Alex Smith and that offense return to throwing passes downfield to the tune of 10.3 yards per play. The Raiders will have Crabtree back from suspension, and are “hopeful” Cooper (ankle) will suit up — and the Chiefs will be without their best cornerback in Marcus Peters (suspension). Oakland should have success running the ball on Kansas City’s 27th ranked Run Defense, and I fully expect the Chiefs to move the ball through the air in this match-up. This number should keep climbing.
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Green Bay @ Cleveland +3 (-108):
The Packers roll into week 14 with their playoff hopes on life support at 6-6, while the Browns are still looking for that elusive first win. This game opened as high as Green Bay -4 before the drop to current pricing (still 3.5’s out there), despite plenty of public support for the visiting team. When we look into this line move and some of the edges in this game, one aspect stands out to me. The Browns have been very good this year at stopping the run (2nd in Defensive Success Rate, 1st in Defensive Rush Efficiency), and have the ability to neutralize what has been the strongest part of the Packer offense since Aaron Rodgers injury. That leaves Green Bay to lean on QB Brett Hundley, who has struggled with his accuracy and overall performance this year (4 games with a QB rating under 50.0). With temperatures set to be in the mid to low 30’s, as well as the potential for strong wind (up to 20mph gusts), this Packers offense could be in trouble this week if the ground game cannot get going. This Cleveland move is very real.
[ For Breakdowns of the biggest Week 14 NFL games listen to Bet the Board podcast ]
Dallas @ New York Giants +4 (-110):
BetOnline.Ag opened Dallas -6 (-105), and we saw Giants money enter the market Monday morning, as Head Coach Ben McAdoo was fired — and Eli Manning was renamed the starting quarterback. This move doesn’t come as a surprise for multiple reasons; the look-ahead lines had the Giants 3-point underdogs for this match-up before the Thursday night Dallas-Washington contest. The ‘Boys took sharp money and proceeded to defeat a banged up Redskins team with a strong run game, a punt return touchdown, and a +4 turnover margin thanks to pressure on Cousins all night. The Giants actually covered the spread on the road with Geno Smith versus the Raiders, losing a close contest 24-17. We then saw a 3-point adjustment between the look-ahead line and the opening numbers, creating some value on the home underdog with its best option under center. The Giants have revenge from their Week 1 loss in Dallas, and I expect Eli to put forth his best effort in order to prove his former coaches decision wrong. Some pro bettors grabbed +6, and I envision once limits increase today and Friday +4 will be gobbled, too.
Week 15 Vegas Look Ahead Lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook:
Home Spread Away
Colts -1 Broncos
Lions N/A Bears
Chiefs -2 Chargers
Giants +9 Eagles
Panthers N/A Packers
Vikings -9 Bengals
Bills N/A Dolphins
Jaguars -8.5 Texans
Saints -10.5 Jets
Redskins -6 Cardinals
Browns +6.5 Ravens
Seahawks -2.5 (-120) Rams
Steelers +2.5 (+100) Patriots
49ers +4 Titans
Raiders -2 Broncos
Buccaneers +3.5 Falcons
